DWF Labs Managing Partner says BTC regulation in UAE and USA is positive for crypto in 2026
In one of the latest episodes of The Rollup podcast, DWF Labs’ Managing Partner Andrei Grachev walked through how he sees this stage of the crypto market cycle, and how BTC regulations in USA and UAE have supported crypto because it is positive structural news.
In terms of the next catalyst for the Bull Market in 2026, Grachev believes there will not be a sing magic trigger because he notes that the crypto market is already fairly developed in terms of products and growth as such will not come from a single flow.
He expects institutions to “definitely join, likely through structured products,” while consumer-grade tools quietly grow the user base. One example he gives is Xiaomi’s decision to pre-install a crypto wallet on every new smartphone: “It’s not about that specific wallet, it’s about crypto exposure.”
He believes that as more people are passively exposed to crypto infrastructure, a natural conversion will happen and more users will come in. This is a gradual, organic process, only a matter of time.
In Grachev’s view, there are already plenty of strong primitives. The next leap forward will be driven less by a brand-new mechanism and more by capital and users finally flowing into the tools that already exist. Institutions, structured products, better UX, and a cleaner market after the leverage flush. Together, that is the real catalyst he’s betting on.
Despite the noise, Grachev’s outlook for crypto is clear: he expects new all-time highs in the first half of 2026, reasons being a blend of market structure and macro.
First, leverage has been “reduced and liquidated,” which “has made the crypto market healthier.” Second, regulation is turning from hostile to pragmatic: “There is nothing fundamentally bad, only increasingly bullish regulation,” he says, pointing to recent SEC comments and clearer frameworks for ICOs and BTC in key jurisdictions.
Third, the macro backdrop still favors scarce digital assets because of the trillions in fiat markets and the global inflation of fiat currencies will make crypto, and especially Bitcoin, stronger in 2026.
Grachev also notes that institutional capital has a timing pattern: many big allocators close their financial year in December 2025 and avoid large trades that could affect P&L or bonuses. As a result, he expects fresh capital to show up from January onward.
He’s skeptical that the old four-year halving cycle still explains much of the price action, and puts more weight on leverage, regulation and macro than on mining schedules.
The shaky market sentiment today
As for today, despite shaky market sentiment, crypto prices have held up well this year. According to Andrei Grachev, the market looks healthier than headlines suggest. Much of excess leverage has already been cleared out, following what he described as the October “nuclear bomb” event. That reset, he said, ultimately strengthened the market, leaving far less leverage in the system today.
In his view, a “virtual bottom” has already formed: “Now, the Bitcoins that could be sold have been sold… I am not talking only about altcoins, I am also talking about BTC.”
At the same time, he points to a run of positive structural news: clearer BTC regulation in the United Arab Emirates and United States, China quietly restarting Bitcoin mining in Sichuan, and pension funds accumulating Bitcoin. If even one of these headlines had dropped in 2021, he argues, “we might have seen Bitcoin at something like $1 million.”
So why the bad mood? Because most people focus on charts and short-term price action, Andrei Grachev believes. Bitcoin has been in a multi-month downtrend, altcoin structures look broken, and that makes it emotionally hard to allocate. Grachev’s stance is the opposite:
“Companies and individuals with capital and sufficient market experience are buying Bitcoin now because it is a good entry point.” The crowd, he reminded, “buys when the BTC price is going up”, not when it’s on sale.
