In a recent IMF blog, the International Monetary Fund noted that almost two-thirds of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia are exploring adopting a central bank digital currency with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE in the more advanced proof of concept stages. The countries in MENA and Central Asia are studying CBDCs as a way to promote financial inclusion and improve the efficiency of cross-border payments.
The IMF Blog notes however that CBDCs require careful consideration, with each weighing their own unique set of circumstances.
Many of the 19 countries currently exploring a CBDC are at the research stage. Bahrain, Georgia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have moved to the more advanced “proof-of-concept” stage. Kazakhstan is the most advanced after two pilot programs for the digital tenge.
As per the blog, Central Bank Digital Currencies for cross border payments are an important priority for oil exporters and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. That’s because cross-border payments tend to have frictions like varying data formats and operating rules across regions and complex compliance checks. CBDCs that address these inefficiencies could significantly cut transaction costs.
These digital currencies can advance financial inclusion by fostering competition in the payments market and allowing for transactions to be settled more directly and with less intermediation, in turn lowering the cost of financial services and making them more accessible.
The IMF blog also notes that unlike commercial banks, central banks can also help keep costs lower as they aren’t concerned with making a profit. Similarly, the resulting increased competition in the payments market from a CBDC could also encourage upgrading technology platforms and the efficiency of payment services, helping financial services reach more people.
Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa oil importers, and low-income countries are especially interested in this potential benefit.
The blog notes that CBDCs may have risks given that CBDCs might compete with bank deposits. It could weigh on bank profits and lending and have implications for financial stability. However, lenders in the region generally have adequate capital levels, profit margins, and liquidity buffers, and their relatively high concentration may limit strains on deposits. Large banks are especially dominant in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
For monetary policy, CBDCs could strengthen the pass-through into deposit rates by increasing competition among banks. A CBDC could also strengthen the bank lending channel of monetary policy. However, as our paper underscores, the impact would likely be country-specific and is difficult to estimate because CBDC uptake is limited so far.
Policymakers can mitigate potential risks with design features to limit competition with bank deposits, such as using carefully calibrated restrictions on CBDC balances and transactions, could also help.
Design features are an important consideration. The IMF survey shows that selecting appropriate features for CBDC implementation is a key challenge for regional policymakers. Achieving the policy objectives of promoting financial inclusion and payment system efficiency will depend on relevant design choices.
For instance, designing CBDCs to work offline could promote financial inclusion in areas with spotty mobile service, such as in low-income countries and fragile and conflict-affected states. Similarly, using CBDCs for cross-border transfers could help lower the cost of sending remittances and speed up transfer times.
According to the blog, introducing digital currencies will be a long and complicated process that central banks must approach with care. Policymakers need to determine if a CBDC serves their country’s objectives and whether the expected benefits outweigh the potential costs, risks for the financial system, and operational risks for the central bank.
The Blog post comes a week after KSA announced that it had joined Mbridge CBDC project, and Qatar’s announcement that it had started to work on a CBDC pilot. The UAE is also moving forward with its CBDC project.
