Saudi Central Bank works with IMF on cost benefit analysis of wholesale CBDCs

Saudi Central Bank works with IMF on cost benefit analysis of wholesale CBDCs

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has noted in its recent country report issued on Saudi Arabia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report, that the Saudi Central Bank is conducting a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) in consultation with local banks and a team of IMF experts.

In the report which commends Saudi Arabia for improvement in various areas, the IMF discusses the exploration of Central Bank Digital Currencies by SAMA.

As per the report, “SAMA is exploring the application of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). It has joined project Aber with the UAE in 2019 to explore digital ledger technology and more recently, the cross-border CBDC project known as M-bridge.”

The report adds, SAMA has also been conducting a cost-benefit analysis of CBDCs, in consultation with local banks and a team of IMF experts. Considerations have so far focused on wholesale transactions.”

The IMF report notes that IMF staff supports SAMA’s cautious approach as it explores the complex requirements and risks to monetary and financial stability relating to the regulatory, technological, or other aspects of CBDCs.

IMF notes two thirds of countries in MENA exploring CBDCs

This is not the first time that the IMF discusses CBDC projects in KSA and in the MENA region. In June the International Monetary Fund noted that almost two-thirds of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia are exploring adopting a central bank digital currency with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE in the more advanced proof of concept stages. The countries in MENA and Central Asia are studying CBDCs as a way to promote financial inclusion and improve the efficiency of cross-border payments.

The IMF blog noted however that CBDCs require careful consideration, with each weighing their own unique set of circumstances.

Saudi Arabia is working on CBDC project mBridge

Saudi Arabia has been working on CBDC implementation project for over three years. Earlier this year, as the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) announced that it had reached a minimum viable product stage, Saleh Algrayan, AI Advisor at Bank for International Settlements and an employee of Saudi Central Bank, announced that Saudi Central Bank had now joined mBridge. Saudi Arabia’s Central Bank becomes the second Arab central bank to join after the UAE Central Bank.

In 2023, at WEF, and during the World Economic Forum’s session Financial Institutions innovating under pressure’ The Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan stated that while CBDCs have privacy issues they are a fantastic tool in developing countries

IMF: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE are in advanced CBDC stages

IMF: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE are in advanced CBDC stages

In a recent IMF blog, the International Monetary Fund noted that almost two-thirds of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia are exploring adopting a central bank digital currency with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE in the more advanced proof of concept stages. The countries in MENA and Central Asia are studying CBDCs as a way to promote financial inclusion and improve the efficiency of cross-border payments.

The IMF Blog notes however that CBDCs require careful consideration, with each weighing their own unique set of circumstances.

Many of the 19 countries currently exploring a CBDC are at the research stage. Bahrain, Georgia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have moved to the more advanced “proof-of-concept” stage. Kazakhstan is the most advanced after two pilot programs for the digital tenge.

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As per the blog, Central Bank Digital Currencies for cross border payments are an important priority for oil exporters and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. That’s because cross-border payments tend to have frictions like varying data formats and operating rules across regions and complex compliance checks. CBDCs that address these inefficiencies could significantly cut transaction costs. 

These digital currencies can advance financial inclusion by fostering competition in the payments market and allowing for transactions to be settled more directly and with less intermediation, in turn lowering the cost of financial services and making them more accessible.

The IMF blog also notes that unlike commercial banks, central banks can also help keep costs lower as they aren’t concerned with making a profit. Similarly, the resulting increased competition in the payments market from a CBDC could also encourage upgrading technology platforms and the efficiency of payment services, helping financial services reach more people.

Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa oil importers, and low-income countries are especially interested in this potential benefit.

The blog notes that CBDCs may have risks given that CBDCs might compete with bank deposits. It could weigh on bank profits and lending and have implications for financial stability. However, lenders in the region generally have adequate capital levels, profit margins, and liquidity buffers, and their relatively high concentration may limit strains on deposits. Large banks are especially dominant in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

For monetary policy, CBDCs could strengthen the pass-through into deposit rates by increasing competition among banks. A CBDC could also strengthen the bank lending channel of monetary policy. However, as our paper underscores, the impact would likely be country-specific and is difficult to estimate because CBDC uptake is limited so far.

Policymakers can mitigate potential risks with design features to limit competition with bank deposits, such as using carefully calibrated restrictions on CBDC balances and transactions, could also help.

Design features are an important consideration. The IMF survey shows that selecting appropriate features for CBDC implementation is a key challenge for regional policymakers. Achieving the policy objectives of promoting financial inclusion and payment system efficiency will depend on relevant design choices.

For instance, designing CBDCs to work offline could promote financial inclusion in areas with spotty mobile service, such as in low-income countries and fragile and conflict-affected states. Similarly, using CBDCs for cross-border transfers could help lower the cost of sending remittances and speed up transfer times.

According to the blog, introducing digital currencies will be a long and complicated process that central banks must approach with care. Policymakers need to determine if a CBDC serves their country’s objectives and whether the expected benefits outweigh the potential costs, risks for the financial system, and operational risks for the central bank.

The Blog post comes a week after KSA announced that it had joined Mbridge CBDC project, and Qatar’s announcement that it had started to work on a CBDC pilot. The UAE is also moving forward with its CBDC project.